The Dodgers have been swinging hot bats and the Braves lead the majors in homers. But this is too high of a total given the pitching matchup. Trevor Bauer is one of the best pitchers in baseball and Max Fried is coming on after a slow start.

There are three additional factors pointing to this total being too high.

There's a slight wind blowing in, Larry Vanover is slated to be the home plate umpire and Sunday is traditionally the best day of the week for Unders. One reason is some starters being rested. The Under has cashed 13 of the 19 times the past two seasons when Vanover has been behind the plate for 68 percent.