Stephen Nover's MLB Thursday Bookie Basher - 36-20 (64%) MLB Run!
(MLB) Royals (KAN) vs. Tigers (DET),
Total: 8.50 | -105.00 Over
Result: Loss
On the surface, this seems like a neutral total given that Tigers starter Keider Montero is terrible, but Royals starter Seth Lugo has been having an All-Star season with a 12-5 record and 2.66 ERA.

Beneath the surface, though, Lugo could be tiring. His ERA the past three games is 5.31. Lugo already is within four innings of throwing the most innings he's ever pitched in a season.

The Tigers rank 20th in runs scored at 4.2. However, the Tigers picked up their offense in July averaging 4.7 runs per game.

The Royals have been swinging hot bats. They are averaging 5.8 runs during their past dozen games.

Montero probably shouldn't be in a big-league rotation. He has a 6.38 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Montero has given up 5 or more runs in each of his last three starts.

Both bullpens are below average, too.