On Sunday the NFL Play is on the Miami Dolphins. Game 303 at 1:00 eastern. The Dolphins fit several variations of the Home dog or pick off a road dog win system. Today they qualify in the subset of a solid 35-3 system that pertains to home dogs that are winning teams at +7 or less off a road dog win, vs an opponent off a home game. There is a never lost parameter that applies here. The Patriots have made a habit of not showing up in the first halves of some of their games. Case in point, the Denver comeback, the Saints win on a last second play and last weeks big finish over Cleveland, One of their big comebacks was against this Miami team at home in a game they were down 17-3 at the half and stormed back to win 27-17. This has left a sour taste in the mouths of Miami, and unlike the teams that The Patriots came back on, the Dolphins get another crack at the Pats. This time it will be at home. Both teams have identical stats when comparing the home to road dichotomies as Miami is 3-3 at home scoring and allowing around 21 and the Patriots 3-3 scoring and allowing 23 points per game. Another system that comes into play pertains to road favorites or pickems that are off a home favored win and spread loss as these teams are 5-23 ats, vs an opponent off a win if the line is -3 or less. The last 3 seasons alone home dog or picks off back to back wins the last as a road dog are a perfect 7-0. Miami as a team is 9-0 ats as a dog off a road game and will look to stop a 6 game losing streak vs the Patriots. They need this one even more after the San Diego upset of Denver on Thursday night. The Patriots happen to be 0-9 to the spread after a game where Brady threw for over 340+ yards and had 2 or less touchdown passes. Brady made good use of Running back Shane Vereen last week and with Big Gronk out, he will have to really mix it around, and that could be harder to do this week on the road. Miami is 6-0 ats as a home dog of late and the Patriots are 1-4 on the road off 1 exact home game. Look for Miami to take this one. Make it Miami today.