This is a 10* NL GOY on the DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE.

What do you base your picks on? How do you make your selections? Do you follow one single handicapping methodology, or are you flexible with your approach?

I base my picks on many different things. Often I base picks on "value." On my "perceived value" of a situation. This is one of those cases.

I simply feel that the "value" is much too good to turn down here by grabbing the red hot home side on the "runline option" at this price.

The D-Backs should in fact be favored here in my opinion. The fact that they're an underdog at home, and then getting an extra 1.5 runs of insurance at this price is the cherry on top.

Zach Wheeler is 4-4 with a 3.91 ERA for the Phillies, while Zach Davies is 1-1 with a 4.68 ERA for the D-Backs. They're a "wash" here.

But for all the reasons listed above, the play is indeed on ARIZONA on the RUNLINE option.

Good luck, NP