This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Mets/Phillies.

Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here this afternoon.

New York has been trading high-scoring games, for lower-scoring UNDERS over its last four games. Off a 5-1 loss to open things up here yesterday, look for this pattern to continue.

The Phillies though have now seen the total go UNDER in eight straight, and that fact has only helped in driving this afternoon's total a couple points lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion.

Max Scherzer is 6-4 with a 4.04 ERA for the Mets, while Cristopher Sanchez is 0-0 with a 3.24 ERA for the Phillies. He's 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three career games vs. the Mets.

The Phillies have now won 14 of their last 18 and they're once again back in playoff contention, spurred mostly by a prolific offense.

The Mets have dropped 14 of their last 18. He's dominated the Phillies in the past, but this is just a case of the veteran being in the wrong place, at the wrong time this afternoon.

The overall situation, combined with the above O/U ATS stats makes the OVER the correct call in this one.

Good luck, NP