Louisiana State are only allowing a puny 3.4 rushing yds/attempt to opponents. Its still just too much to overcome for Louisville to change that. The offense of Louisiana State has been putting up 28 / game - too much for Louisville. 34 ppg over the last 3 games is hard to overlook and 14 TD RB, Derrius Guice, as a constant scoring threat are too much to try and contain.


The Louisville Oline has looked bad, showing weakness vs giving enough time to throw the ball downfield. Their OTs cannot control Louisiana State's DEs when they starts moving - especially Arden Key who is responsible for 10 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss. Louisville isn't going to be able to run the ball as effective as they want to - their running QB isn't showing up here vs the defense of Louisiana State that has only been giving up 3.4 a carry on the season.


The Louisville Cardinals are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Leonard Fournette is skipping the Citrus Bowl, but he hasn't been 100 percent and Derrius Guice isn't too shabby. He ripped A&M for 285 yards and four TDs in the regular-season finale. Look for the Tigers' defense to contain Lamar Jackson and for the Cardinals to end their once-magical season on a three-game skid. Play LSU in this early Saturday morning kickoff.