PREMIUM
AAA's BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT (LAY IT & CASH IT!)
(NHL) Toronto vs. Montreal,
Money Line: -170.00 Montreal (Home)
Result: Win
Money Line: -170.00 Montreal (Home)
Result: Win
This is an 8* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Montreal Canadiens.
We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Rhythm coming back: Montreal has earned five points in three games after handing the Capitals a 4-3 home loss on Wednesday. While the postseason still remains a long shot, a date vs. the hapless Leafs is just what the doctor ordered to keep their hopes alive as the Habs have won nine straight in the series.
Montreal goaltender Mike Condon: Condon has a 1.90 GAA in his last three games.
Recent history: Toronto hasn't scored more than three goals in any contest over its 0-5-4 stretch in the series. Note that the Leafs have scored just nine goals and gone 0 for 19 on the power play during an 0-3-2 skid in Montreal. And that's bad news, as the Habs come in red hot on special teams right now, having killed off 21 of 24 penalties over their last nine.
Playing out the rest of the season: Toronto has already traded Dion Phaneuf, Nick Spalin, Roman Polak and Shawn Matthias. Also note that key forwards Joffrey Lupus and James van Riemsdyk will not be returning this season due to injury.
ATS statistics: Note that Toronto is just 1-14 (-12.8 units) vs. the division this season, while Montreal is 12-7 (+3.8 units) in the same position.
The bottom line: It's basically do or die for the HABS until the end of the season, we look for the better team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
AAA Sports
We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Rhythm coming back: Montreal has earned five points in three games after handing the Capitals a 4-3 home loss on Wednesday. While the postseason still remains a long shot, a date vs. the hapless Leafs is just what the doctor ordered to keep their hopes alive as the Habs have won nine straight in the series.
Montreal goaltender Mike Condon: Condon has a 1.90 GAA in his last three games.
Recent history: Toronto hasn't scored more than three goals in any contest over its 0-5-4 stretch in the series. Note that the Leafs have scored just nine goals and gone 0 for 19 on the power play during an 0-3-2 skid in Montreal. And that's bad news, as the Habs come in red hot on special teams right now, having killed off 21 of 24 penalties over their last nine.
Playing out the rest of the season: Toronto has already traded Dion Phaneuf, Nick Spalin, Roman Polak and Shawn Matthias. Also note that key forwards Joffrey Lupus and James van Riemsdyk will not be returning this season due to injury.
ATS statistics: Note that Toronto is just 1-14 (-12.8 units) vs. the division this season, while Montreal is 12-7 (+3.8 units) in the same position.
The bottom line: It's basically do or die for the HABS until the end of the season, we look for the better team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
AAA Sports
