The set-up: The Pats broke a two-game slide with a 38-7 win over Miami last Sunday, while the Colts came up on the short end of the stick in a 37-34 OT setback at Houston last Sunday. These teams haven't played since 2015.

The teams: Indianapolis had a 478-466 edge in offense last week, but it just wasn't to be in the end. QB Andrew Luck so far has 1,126 yards, nine TD's and three INT's. Adam Vinatieri continues to be a steady source of production as well, hitting all eight extra points and eight nine field goals with a long of 51.

The Pats smashed the Dolphins last week with a 449-172 yardage advantage. So far QB Tom Brady has an unremarkable 918 yards with nine TD's and four INT's. RB Sony Michels has 196 yards and a TD.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Indianapolis is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range (including 2-0 ATS this season) and 9-7 ATS in its last 16 on the road (including 2-0 ATS this year), while New England is a horrible 0-4 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. I think Luck will match Brady. Grab the points.