The set-up: It's do or die for the underachieving Indians. I like the home side to find a way to get the job done in the elimination situation. The visitors hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel, while the home side goes with Mike Clevinger.

The pitchers: Keuchel finished 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA. After a shaky first half, Keuchel settled down in the second. It's difficult to say too many negative things about the crafty southpaw, I simply feel that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

Clevinger is so far 13-8 with a 3.02 ERA. In 2017 Clevinger was 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA. His peripherals clearly suggest that he's for real. Clevinger has been "lights out" at home as well by going 7-3 with a 3.04 ERA.

The pick: Note as well that Clevinger has been even better in all "day" games by going 7-2 with a 2.04 ERA. And take it for what you will, but note that the Tribe are 7-2 in their last nine National League day home games in which they're a favorite in the -105 to -145 range. Play on Cleveland.