The Florida State Seminoles are ranked #2 in the country, coming into Louisville with a 7-0 record. Only a controversial flag for offensive pass interference prevented them from losing on a last minute TD against Notre Dame last week, and it wasn't the first time that the Noles dodged a bullet. Bettors are lining up to Fade FSU as a favorite, but I think this has created value backing the visitors.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Line Movement - After the news that the Seminoles leading rusher is under investigation for domestic assault, the line has moved from -8.5 to -3.5. Williams only had eight carries for 25 yards against Notre Dame, and in recent weeks Dalvin Cook has been the preferred option for the Noles. In my opinion, the situation with Williams shouldn't move the line more than half a point at the most.

2. Famous Jameis - He's never lost in his entire college football career, and while his numbers are down from last year, he still ranks near the top of the country with a completion percentage over 70%.

3. X-Factor - The Seminoles have scored at least 31 points in all of their games so far, and I think that trend will continue tonight.

Selection: This is a play on the FSU Seminoles ML (8*)