PREMIUM
AAA's CFB "BIG TIGER!" (SIGNATURE SERIES RELEASE!)
(NCAAF) SMU vs. Navy,
11/11/2017 10:30 AM, Score: 40 - 43
Point Spread: -3.50 | -110.00 Navy (Home)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: -3.50 | -110.00 Navy (Home)
Result: Loss
This is an 8* BIG TIGER on Navy.
We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.
This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense:
As note that SMU is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 against teams with winning records and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 off a loss against a conference rival (the Mustangs won back-to-back games to become bowl eligible and fought hard last week, but fell short in their 31-24 setback to UCF), while Navy is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range and 14-7 ATS in its last 21 against the conference.
The bottom line: The Mids lost QB Zach Abey to injury in their 34-26 loss to Temple last Thursday, but Garret Lewis played well in relief by going 6 of 9 for 110 yards and two touchdowns. SMU has already punched its ticket to the postseason and we're expecting a predictable letdown here. Look for Lewis to build off last week's impressive peformance as NAVY lays everything on the line today to try and become bowl eligible.
AAA Sports
We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.
This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense:
As note that SMU is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 against teams with winning records and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 off a loss against a conference rival (the Mustangs won back-to-back games to become bowl eligible and fought hard last week, but fell short in their 31-24 setback to UCF), while Navy is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range and 14-7 ATS in its last 21 against the conference.
The bottom line: The Mids lost QB Zach Abey to injury in their 34-26 loss to Temple last Thursday, but Garret Lewis played well in relief by going 6 of 9 for 110 yards and two touchdowns. SMU has already punched its ticket to the postseason and we're expecting a predictable letdown here. Look for Lewis to build off last week's impressive peformance as NAVY lays everything on the line today to try and become bowl eligible.
AAA Sports
