PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's CFB Thursday Spread Beater
(NCAAF) Idaho vs. Troy,
11/02/2017 5:15 PM, Score: 21 - 24
Point Spread: 18.00 | -110.00 Idaho (Away)
Result: Win
Point Spread: 18.00 | -110.00 Idaho (Away)
Result: Win
Earlier this season, Troy became the first Sun Belt Conference team in history to crack The Associated Press Top 25. The Trojans acheived this by stunning LSU, 24-21, as a three-touchdown road 'dog on Sept. 30.
The Trojans proceeded to lose their next game, 19-8, to South Alabama as 18-point home favorites. South Alabama is the one common foe Idaho and Troy have. The Vandals defeated South Alabama, 29-23, on the road.
There are other reasons why I like the Vandals here in such a heavy underdog role. Situation, motivation, matchup analysis and line value all are handicapping factors.
This is a dangerous spot for Troy. The Trojans celebrated their homecoming game with a 38-16 home victory against Georgia Southern this past Saturday. The win was significant because it marked the first time the Trojans have beat the Eagles since 1992. More important, it pushed the Trojans' record to 6-2 making them bowl eligible.
It's a quick turnabout now for the Trojans playing on Thursday. You have to wonder how motivated they will be following that important victory?
Idaho, though, won't have any problem getting up for this game. It's rare national exposure for the Vandals. They need to win three of their last four games to become bowl eligible. It's also the Vandals' last season playing in the FBS. They drop down to FCS next season as part of a cost-cutting decision.
Studying the matchup, I find Idaho to be underrated while Troy is perhaps perceived higher than it really should be due to the LSU victory. The Trojans are 6-2, but just 2-6 against the spread (ATS).
Troy has a solid defense, but its offense has regressed. The Trojans have been without their best runner, Jordan Chunn, the past two games. Idaho has the quarterback edge with Matt Linehan. He's a pro prospect and on track to become Idaho's all-time leading passer. Linehan has completed nearly 61 percent of his throws with a 14-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's probably the best quarterback Troy has faced all season.
Contrast Linehan with Troy quarterback Brandon Silvers, who has just a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and been sacked 11 times.
The Trojans average 25 points, which ranks them 89th. Idaho averages 23.6 points while giving up an average of 30.6 points. The Vandals' overall statistics are skewed by two terrible performances versus UNLV and Missouri. If you discount those games and in fairness throw out Idaho's 28-6 opening-week victory against Sacramento State, the Vandals would be surrendering 25.4 points a game.
The oddsmaker is asking Troy to give up a lot of points in a game that has a relatively low total. The Trojans have scored more than 27 points three times this season. If they were to score 30 points they still would have a hard time covering this number considering Linehan's talent level that ensures Idaho of getting its share of points.
Idaho often is overlooked. The Vandals quietly have covered 80 percent of their last 16 games going 12-3-1 ATS. Troy, on the other hand, has failed to cover during its past six home games.
The Trojans proceeded to lose their next game, 19-8, to South Alabama as 18-point home favorites. South Alabama is the one common foe Idaho and Troy have. The Vandals defeated South Alabama, 29-23, on the road.
There are other reasons why I like the Vandals here in such a heavy underdog role. Situation, motivation, matchup analysis and line value all are handicapping factors.
This is a dangerous spot for Troy. The Trojans celebrated their homecoming game with a 38-16 home victory against Georgia Southern this past Saturday. The win was significant because it marked the first time the Trojans have beat the Eagles since 1992. More important, it pushed the Trojans' record to 6-2 making them bowl eligible.
It's a quick turnabout now for the Trojans playing on Thursday. You have to wonder how motivated they will be following that important victory?
Idaho, though, won't have any problem getting up for this game. It's rare national exposure for the Vandals. They need to win three of their last four games to become bowl eligible. It's also the Vandals' last season playing in the FBS. They drop down to FCS next season as part of a cost-cutting decision.
Studying the matchup, I find Idaho to be underrated while Troy is perhaps perceived higher than it really should be due to the LSU victory. The Trojans are 6-2, but just 2-6 against the spread (ATS).
Troy has a solid defense, but its offense has regressed. The Trojans have been without their best runner, Jordan Chunn, the past two games. Idaho has the quarterback edge with Matt Linehan. He's a pro prospect and on track to become Idaho's all-time leading passer. Linehan has completed nearly 61 percent of his throws with a 14-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's probably the best quarterback Troy has faced all season.
Contrast Linehan with Troy quarterback Brandon Silvers, who has just a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and been sacked 11 times.
The Trojans average 25 points, which ranks them 89th. Idaho averages 23.6 points while giving up an average of 30.6 points. The Vandals' overall statistics are skewed by two terrible performances versus UNLV and Missouri. If you discount those games and in fairness throw out Idaho's 28-6 opening-week victory against Sacramento State, the Vandals would be surrendering 25.4 points a game.
The oddsmaker is asking Troy to give up a lot of points in a game that has a relatively low total. The Trojans have scored more than 27 points three times this season. If they were to score 30 points they still would have a hard time covering this number considering Linehan's talent level that ensures Idaho of getting its share of points.
Idaho often is overlooked. The Vandals quietly have covered 80 percent of their last 16 games going 12-3-1 ATS. Troy, on the other hand, has failed to cover during its past six home games.
