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(NCAAF) San Diego State vs. Utah State, 10/28/2016 4:00 PM, Score: 40 - 13
Total: 43.50 | -112.00 Under
Result: Win
The set-up: San Diego State ended the 2015 season on a 10-game winning streak, finishing 11-3 after a 42-7 win over Cincinnati in the Hawaii Bowl. The Aztecs opened the 2016 season with three more wins, as SDSU rose to 19th in the AP poll. However, a 42-24 loss at South Alabama on October 1st saw the Aztecs fall from the rankings. However, the Aztecs visit Utah State Friday night 6-1 overall and atop the West Division of the MWC at 3-0. Utah State is hoping for a sixth straight bowl appearance but has some work to do, sitting at 3-4 overall and at 1-3, is tied for last-place with Air Force in the Mountain Division of the MWC.

San Diego State: The Aztecs are averaging 32.4 PPG (50th) led by a running game averaging 252.7 YPG (14th) on 5.3 YPC. RB Donnel Pumphrey ran for just 98 yards in the team's opener against New Hampshire but has topped 100 yards in each of SDSU's last six games (he now owns 28, 100-yard games in his career), including two efforts of over 200 yards. He has 1,246 yards (6.5 YPC) and 13 rushing TDs here in 2016. QB Chapman completes 64.0 percent but averages only 164.4 YPG passing with nine TDs but also has thrown only three INTs. The SDSU defense has been very good, despite an ‘ugly' effort in the loss to South Alabama. The Aztecs are allowing just 17.6 PPG (13th) on 285.7 YPG (5th).

Utah State: Gary Andersen began the turnaround in Logan, earning bowl bids in 2011 and 2012 for the Aggies, the school's first since 1997. He then left for Wisconsin with his assistant, Matt Wells, taking over at his alma mater. Wells has continued Utah State's rebirth and has extended the school's bowl run to five in a row. A sixth straight bowl berth is in question, as without a win here (Utah State is about a six-point dog), the Aggies would need to win three of their final four games to reach six wins, with three of those four coming on the road. Junior QB Kent Myers is a dual threat, as he's second on the team in rushing attempts (73) and third in rushing yards (272). Myers leads the MWC in completions per game (20.1), completing 59.0 percent for 1,480 yards but with just seven TDs (four interceptions). The running game averages 178.1 YPG (59th) on 4.9 YPC and Devante Mays (208 yards in the opener), who has been out most of the season with a leg injury, appears ready to return.
Utah State's defense is allowing 24.3 PPG (46th) on 359.6 YPG (35th).

The pick: SDSU is the better team and Pumphrey one of CFB's most overlooked stars, as he currently ranks 9th on the NCAA's all-time rushing list (barring injury, he should close his career in the top-5). However, winning in Logan is no easy task. Consider this, Utah State is 26-4 in its last 30 home games, which includes a 17-2 record in MWC games. Utah State should be more than competitive in this one and with a fairly low total (for a CFB game), the Over is a 10* play.