The set-up: Cincinnati is 4-3 overall (1-3 in AAC play) as the Bearcats visit Temple (5-3 / 3-1) on Saturday afternoon. The Bearcats have been postseason regulars, having made 14 bowl appearances since 1997, including all three years under current head coach Tommy Tuberville. However, while Cincinnati needs only two wins to reach six victories to go bowling again this season, the path will be difficult with road games at Temple (here) and UCF (11/12) plus home games against BYU (11/5) and Memphis 11/18) still left among the team's final five games. Temple's Matt Ruhle led the Owls to a 10-4 season last year and pleased all in Philly when he decided to not seek greener pastures. Down 25-7 in the first half at UCF on Oct. 15, Temple shut out the Knights in the second half and won 26-25, with the game-winning TD pass coming with one second remaining. Temple followed with a 46-30 pasting of USF last Saturday, rushing for 319 yards.

Cincinnati: The Bearcats ended a two-game slide with their first AAC win of the season last week, beating East Carolina 31-19. Former starter Gunner Kiel returned to the lineup at QB after losing his job and passed for 348 yards and four TDs (who expected that?). The Cincy defense held an opponent under 20 points for the first time since opening the season with a 28-7 win over UT-Martin but all in all, the defense has been pretty decent, allowing 24.4 PPG on the year. However, after averaging 30-plus PGG over each of the last five season, this year's team is averaging just 24.1 PPG.

Temple: With back-to-back league wins over UCF and USF, Temple is back in position for a second-straight trip to the AAC title games (lost last season at Houston). The Owls are tied atop the East with South Florida at 3-1 and would love for Navy to upend USF Friday night in Tampa. The Owls can't control that outcome of that but Temple now owns the tiebreaker over the Bulls with last week's win, so it's just a matter of controlling one's own destiny. RB Ryquell Armstead ran for a career-best 210 yards last week and starting QB Philip Walker did not throw an interception for just the second time this season.

The pick: After back-to-back important wins, I expect Temple to play this one close to the vest, not asking Walker, a limited passer at best, to do too much, while depending on the team's very good RB duo of Armstead (613 yards / 9 TDs) and Jahad Thomas (413 yards / 9 TDs). Kiel lost his starting job earlier for a good reason, he hadn't played well. I don't expect him to come anywhere close to playing as well as he did last week, against a solid Temple defense, allowing 321.5 YPG to rank 16th in the nation. The Under is an 8* play.