The New York Mets have had a month of May that they probably would rather forget. They've lost each of the first two of a three-game set at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, but I like the visitors chances of restoring some dignity with an upset win in the series-finale today.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Pirates will hand the ball to Francisco Liriano (1-4, 4.15) as he's coming off his worst start of the season by far when he lasted just two innings in an 8-5 loss at Minnesota. Liriano gave up seven runs on five hits with two homers and two walks and he'll most likely find it hard to turn it around home at PNC Park where he's 0-3 with a 7.45 ERA in four starts on the year. The Mets will counter with Jonathon Niese (3-4, 3.72 ERA) who's off his his worst start of the year as well when he conceded eight runs on 11 hits over five innings in a 10-2 loss against the Cardinals. He's had decent success against the Pirates over his career though, going 3-1 despite a 4.41 ERA in six starts with the Mets winning five times. He'll be backed up by a very competent bullpen which has the fourth best ERA (2.42) on the year.

2. Situational - The Mets are a perfect 7-0 in Niese's last seven road starts against a team with a losing record while the Pirates have lost all of Liriano's last eight starts versus a team with a winning record.

3. X-Factor - New York's Daniel Murphy is 6-for-11 over the past three games.

Selection: This is a play on the New York Mets +1.5 (8*)