Elephant in the room is the metrics aren’t having the best first half of the season, but the great news is a majority win long-term. Atlanta is 5-3 SU but is only laying -2.5 at home to a team 3-4. When the road team is not as big of a dog as the record say they should be, they are 279-175 for +86.50 units.

Bad teams on the road, off a loss that was not a blowout are 272-166. Big turnover table angle is 570-416. Atlanta is dead even in turnover margin, while Dallas is third worst in the NFL at -8. But turnovers are correctable and great margins tough to maintain, so going with the much worse turnover team offers great value.