We researched the meme about those who insist on betting double-digit underdogs in rivalry games. This series mirrors our findings. Big favorites are solid plays, contradictory to the urban legend, but small underdogs, meaning one-to-two touchdown range, have been solid plays. However, even the modified underdog rivalry stat falls well short of an actual angle.

With Army knocking on the door of ending the Navy domination, the 13 points is a strong play. In fact, a combined 10 points have decided the last two games. Navy is looking to win for the 12th consecutive series meeting. Setting the record is plenty of motivation to win straight up, but also reason to play it safe and try to simply salvage the straight up win.

Freshman wide receiver Xavier Moss has had an impressive rookie campaign for Army with 30 catches for 418 yards and a touchdown. Not only is he getting better, but also they actually have a nice option for playing from behind.

Our true line (previously known as outlaw line) is just 10. A three-point difference is pretty significant corroboration. The true line is what the line would be without public perception or bad line moves.

We expect that Navy sets the record for most consecutive wins in the series, but Army wins where it really counts.