ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday @ 6:30 ET - Our power ratings have this total set at 49 so, in our opinion, we’re getting a few points of value on the Under. Neither QB is 100% healthy with Mahomes high ankle sprain which should be better but will continue to limit his mobility and Hurts shoulder injury which has really prevented him from being accurate throwing downfield. Both defenses match up very well vs the opposing offenses strengths. The Eagles rank #1 in the NFL in overall pass defense and they had 15 more sacks than any other team in the NFL this season. The pressure will be a problem for Mahomes who won’t have his usual mobility due to his ankle injury. The Philadelphia defense has been stout all season ranking 2nd in total defense while allowing just 20 PPG. On the other side, the Eagles run the ball almost 51% of the time (4th most in the NFL) and KC’s strength on defense is stopping the run. The Chiefs rank 8th in the NFL allowing just 107 YPG rushing and their defense as a whole has improved dramatically over the 2nd half of the season. On October 31st the Chiefs overall defense ranked 26th allowing 370 YPG. They now rank 10th in the NFL giving up just 328 yards per game and have allowed an average of just 304 total yards per game and only 4.8 yards per play since November 1st. Last week they held a potent Cincinnati offense to 309 total yards on 4.8 yards per play. So while Philly’s defense has been a strength all year, KC’s has been one of the best in the NFL the 2nd half of the season. KC has played 19 games this season with just 6 of those topping 51 total points (in regulation). Philadelphia has also played 19 games this season and only 5 of those games have topped 51 total points. Thus, of the 38 combined games these 2 have played, only 11 have topped 51 total points. An interesting underlying situation in this Super Bowl is the officiating. Carl Cheffers team will be officiating this game and they have called more penalties than any other crew in the NFL each of the past 2 seasons. Cheffers has been the head referee for 12 playoff games since 2010 and 11 of those 12 games have stayed Under the Total by an average of 13 PPG. He reffed the Cincinnati vs Buffalo playoff game a few weeks ago which stayed Under the total by 11 points. Historically, there have been 55 Super Bowls and 13 of those have had totals set in the 50’s. 9 of those 13 games have stayed Under the Total. More recently, since 2000, there have been 8 Super Bowls with the total set at 50 points or higher and 7 of those games have stayed Under the Total. The last 4 Super Bowls have stayed Under the total and we’re projecting this one will do the same.