#908 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 4:05 PM ET - As we mentioned Friday in the most recent start for Zach Wheeler, he had struggled in his first start this season but it was on the road. Sure enough, Wheeler bounced back at home Friday with a respectable start and he truly dominated at home last season with a 6-3 record and a 1.85 ERA and also the prior season he was 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA in starts in Philly and 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park in 2020. As a member of the division rival Mets prior to 2020, he dominated in terms of hits per innings pitched in starts in Philly. The fact is Wheeler loves it at CBP and dominates a mediocre (at best) Marlins lineup here. The Marlins got the 8-4 win over the Phillies yesterday but were 35-46 in road games last season. This season all 7 of the Marlins losses have been by at least 2 runs and actually Miami's average margin of defeat is 6 runs per loss which shows how bad their bullpen can fall apart in games. In this case that bullpen could be called upon early too because Edward Cabrera just can not find the plate this season. Sometimes starters will have a one-off game where they just can not throw strikes but something is not right with Cabrera. He walked 6 batters in his first start and 7 batters in his second start and this was in an average of only 3 and 1/3 innings per start! Phillies, including post-season, are on a 56-38 run in home games including 23-9 last 32. The home/road dichotomy, the edge of Wheeler over Cabrera, the defending NL Champs over one of the weaker teams in MLB...it all adds up to a must play here as the Phillies are already a perfect 2-0 this season when at home off a loss and they won those two games by a combined score of 20 to 5. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Phillies. Lay it!