This is a poor situational spot for Cal following a heartbreaking one-point loss to Miami. The Golden Bears, who blew a 25-point lead versus the Hurricanes, also lost a close game to Florida State the previous week. Road teams in conference games coming off losses of less than 3 points have struggled since 2011, going 72-102 ATS (41.4%) in their next game.

The matchup is a good one for the Panthers, as well. Pittsburgh's run game ranks 7th in EPA per rush and 6th in rush rate over expectation this season, and Alabama transfer freshman QB Eli Holstein has been better than anticipated (1,564 passing yards, 15 TDs and 3 INTS). Pitt is one of only 12 teams averaging 7.9 or more effective yards per play. It ranks 18th in passing success rate, 16th in Early Downs EPA and 9th in net points per drive. Pitt is scoring 45.6 points per game (6th) with 522.2 total yards (4th) and 340.4 passing yards per game (6th).

On the other side of the ball, expect the Panthers to BALL OUT. Cal ranks 112th in Havoc Allowed and the Pitt defense ranks 20th in Defensive Havoc Rating. The Panthers are 23rd in opponent rushing success rate and 13th in EPA per rush, suggesting the Bears' ground game (89th in EPA per rush, 76th in rushing success rate and 75th in Early Downs EPA) will be in for a tough day.