PREMIUM
VIRGINIA CAVS +21.5
(NCAAF) Cavaliers (UVA) vs. Tigers (CLE),
Point Spread: 21.50 | -110.00 Cavaliers (UVA) (Away)
Result: Win
Point Spread: 21.50 | -110.00 Cavaliers (UVA) (Away)
Result: Win
Betting Trends: Clemson is 8-9 ATS as big spread favorites since 2020. Virginia is also 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games (+4.70 units / 36% ROI).
I'm backing the Cavaliers to cover the 21.5-point spread in my first early bet for Week 8 CFB action.
Clemson has deserved praise for its response to its demoralizing season-opening loss to Georgia, as it handled its next five opponents with ease (29.4 points average margin of victory). The love for the Tigers may be getting out of hand, however, when you consider the quality of the opponents they played (App State, NC State, Stanford, FSU and Wake).
Their defensive metrics give me pause, as they rank 116th in EPA/Rush Allowed, 118th in explosive rushing plays allowed and 115th in Defensive Line Yards. They have also struggled to stop their opponents when they cross the 40-yard line, as they rank 108th in Defensive Finishing Drives, allowing 4.4 points per scoring opportunity. While Clemson's previous five opponents didn't have ground games capable of taking advantage, Virginia does.
The Cavaliers average 174.8 rushing yards per game, as they sport two solid running backs, junior Xavier Brown (46 carries for 334 yards (7.3 YPC) with a long of 75 yards) and senior Kobe Pace (71 carries for 331 yards (4.7 YPC)), and a dual-threat QB, Anthony Colandrea (64 carries for 242 yards), who rushed for 84 yards on 15 carries last week vs. Louisville. They are finding space to run behind a Hoos offensive line that ranks 25th in Offensive Line Yards and 5th in Stuff Rate Allowed. On top of that, Colandrea is efficient off of play-action, so it will be crucial for the Cavaliers to establish the ground game early.
While Clemson is likely to put up points, the Cavs held Louisville to 3-for-11 combined on third and fourth down last week and held up well enough in pass coverage, as Cardinals QB Tyler Shough completed only 58.1% of his passes. If they don't get exposed too much through the air, the Tigers will have to lean more on their ground game against Virginia (48th in rush yards allowed), which will eat up the clock and prevent them from pulling away too easily.
In short, I feel the Cavs were disrespected by this line. HC Tony Elliott was a member of Clemson's staff for a decade, so he is familiar with the Tigers' ways. Bet on UVA to keep the final score within the 21.5-point spread!
I'm backing the Cavaliers to cover the 21.5-point spread in my first early bet for Week 8 CFB action.
Clemson has deserved praise for its response to its demoralizing season-opening loss to Georgia, as it handled its next five opponents with ease (29.4 points average margin of victory). The love for the Tigers may be getting out of hand, however, when you consider the quality of the opponents they played (App State, NC State, Stanford, FSU and Wake).
Their defensive metrics give me pause, as they rank 116th in EPA/Rush Allowed, 118th in explosive rushing plays allowed and 115th in Defensive Line Yards. They have also struggled to stop their opponents when they cross the 40-yard line, as they rank 108th in Defensive Finishing Drives, allowing 4.4 points per scoring opportunity. While Clemson's previous five opponents didn't have ground games capable of taking advantage, Virginia does.
The Cavaliers average 174.8 rushing yards per game, as they sport two solid running backs, junior Xavier Brown (46 carries for 334 yards (7.3 YPC) with a long of 75 yards) and senior Kobe Pace (71 carries for 331 yards (4.7 YPC)), and a dual-threat QB, Anthony Colandrea (64 carries for 242 yards), who rushed for 84 yards on 15 carries last week vs. Louisville. They are finding space to run behind a Hoos offensive line that ranks 25th in Offensive Line Yards and 5th in Stuff Rate Allowed. On top of that, Colandrea is efficient off of play-action, so it will be crucial for the Cavaliers to establish the ground game early.
While Clemson is likely to put up points, the Cavs held Louisville to 3-for-11 combined on third and fourth down last week and held up well enough in pass coverage, as Cardinals QB Tyler Shough completed only 58.1% of his passes. If they don't get exposed too much through the air, the Tigers will have to lean more on their ground game against Virginia (48th in rush yards allowed), which will eat up the clock and prevent them from pulling away too easily.
In short, I feel the Cavs were disrespected by this line. HC Tony Elliott was a member of Clemson's staff for a decade, so he is familiar with the Tigers' ways. Bet on UVA to keep the final score within the 21.5-point spread!
