This is an 8* TOP AL TOTAL on the OVER Tigers/White Sox.

I had a play on the OVER in yesterday's series opener, and that missed the mark by a single run in the Tigers' 5-2 victory.

Neither team has been playing to many high-scoring affairs of late, but I expect that to finally change on Wednesday night.

Casey Mize is 1-2 with a 5.23 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and pedestrian 14:7 K:BB over 20.2 innings this year for the Tigers. Over his last two starts he's conceded 11 runs.

Carlos Rodon is 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs over five innings in a win over the Indians on Tuesday.

Rodon's early numbers look unsustainable to us and regression is imminent. We also don't expect Mize to be able to simply "flip a switch" and resolve all of his issues between his last start and this one.

Finally, note that Detroit has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last 11 after seeing the total go UNDER in three or more in a row.

Everything points to these two starters getting the hook early. The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP